"Rights" obtained by China in the shadow of the Ukrainian War, listening to Professor Rikkyo, a professor at Russia, a professor of Russia

――It is expanding economic sanctions while the ceasefire consultation is not united, and it is likely that not only Russia but also the global economy, especially Europe, will increase.

I thought that the world economy would be structurally changed from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean, and I thought that the struggle due to such changes would occur sooner or later, and the US -China conflict was actually happening.I thought it would affect Russia's actions between Europe and Asia.

However, it is very regrettable that it happened at the highest sacrifice of military invasion.Without the existence of China, Russia might have remained such a dangerous bet.At the same time, it is necessary to stop and think about whether there was no problem with the Western capitalist camp after the Cold War.

ロシアが音を上げるかは疑問

The blow to the Russian economy is of course large.President Putin may have completed the control of Ukraine in about three days, assuming that the battle will not be prolonged.

はすみ・ゆう／1960年生まれ。東京外国語大学ロシア語科卒。ソビエト連邦・ロシア経済から欧州経済、エネルギー政策まで研究。立正大学教授を経て2017年から現職。著書に『沈まぬユーロ』（共著）など(写真：本人提供）キャプ

In 2008, Ukraine and Georgia wrote the words "NATO member states" in Bucharest's NATO (NATO) Summit Communication Communication.Just before and after this, Putin has been supplying oil and gas not only to Europe but also to Russia east.

The Touhou Gas Program was published in 2007, and the construction of the East Siberia Pacific Oil Pipeline (ESPO) was started from the previous year, the Daikai branch line was completed in 2010, and the entire ESPO was operated in 2012, and oil in Asia.The core pipeline that can be exported has begun to move.It was in 2009 that liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Sakhalin began.

Thus, Russia has established a system that can export one -quarter of oil and to some extent to Asia and the Pacific Ocean.The "Siberian Power" gas pipeline, which connects the middle ro, which began after the Ukrainian crisis in 2014, was also operating in 2019.

In the wake of the 1998 financial crisis, Russia has accumulated foreign currency preparation and enhancing the National Welfare Fund.In addition, due to the sanctions associated with Crimea's occupation in 2014, it has been removed.

Foreign currency preparation is about $ 630 billion at the end of June 2021, but the euro is about 32 %, gold 22 %, dollar 16 %, 13 % of the people, pound 6.In 5 %, the dollar has been reduced to increase the euro, gold, and the yuan.However, 60 % seem to have been frozen by sanctions.The National Welfare Fund is about $ 180 billion, with a large scale of 12 % of GDP, which is considered to be a considerable part of the GDP.

After all, if foreign currency revenue is cut off, it will be painful.He remembered the 1990s when he heard about forcing foreign currency revenue to exporters.Russia has revived in the replacement economy after the collapse of the Soviet Union and after the 1998 financial crisis.

I don't know if young people can endure it, and the anti -war movement is growing in Russia.Above all, the deterioration of daily life will increase dissatisfaction with the government.However, Russia is weak for attacking, but is strong in protecting.It is better not to think that the sound is easily raised in economic sanctions.

――There is a series of withdrawal of western companies from resource development.

>>インタビューの続きはこちら

全文は無料の東洋経済ID登録でお読みいただけます。

The following articles are also distributed in the special feature of Toyo Keizai Plus, "World Economy shaking in the Ukrainian crisis".You can read it with a free Toyo economic ID registration.

What is "Swift" in Russian economic sanctions?

What does "Swift blocking" to Russia bring?

Change of "World Order" that President Putin is driving

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